HC Securities & Investment - Reports

Dubai Banks Report

hcsi — Tue, 24 Jun 2008 07:49:20 +0000

June 24th, 2008
Something of Value

Summary

▪Emirates National Bank of Dubai (ENBD)
We are initiating our coverage of Emirates National Bank of Dubai with a “Strong Buy” recommendation, based on a target price of AED16.01/share, which offers 35.1% upside potential to the bank’s current market price.

▪Dubai Islamic Bank (DIB)
We are initiating our coverage of Dubai Islamic Bank with a “Buy” recommendation, based on a target price of AED10.42/share, which offers 26.3% upside potential to the bank’s current market price.

EFIC, "Break New Ground"; Update Report

hcsi — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 14:49:50 +0000

June 11th, 2008
Summary
▪Major Expansion Plans Underway
EFIC acquired 256,000 square meters of land in Al Ain Al Sokhna through its 99.9% owned subsidiary Suez Company for Fertilizers Production (SCFP) to increase its phosphate fertilizers production capacity to reach 1.7 million tons by the end of 2008, up from its current level of 1.2 million tons, making EFIC one of the biggest phosphate fertilizer producers in the world.

Egypt Country Report

hcsi — Sun, 18 May 2008 14:41:02 +0000

May 18th, 2008
Summary
▪Achievements Egypt managed to grow at 7.1% in FY07 versus 6.9% in FY06 and 8.1% in 2Q07/08 against 6.6% in 2Q06/07. This gave Egypt several reasons to rejoice as it managed to draw foreign investors' attention and managed to place itself on the map of world investments. Foreign direct investments (FDI) almost doubled reaching USD11.0 billion in FY07 in comparison to USD6.1 billion in FY06 and it expected to reach USD15.0 billion in FY08 on the back of vast interest coming from the west and the Arab world, coupled with the expected sale of a 51%-67% stake in Banuqe du Caire scheduled to take place by the end of fiscal year 2008.

AMOC,"Oil's Gold"; Update Report

hcsi — Tue, 15 Apr 2008 14:47:36 +0000

April 15th, 2008
Summary
▪AMOC Background and Operations
Alexandria Minerals Oils Company (AMOC) is a refinery producer operating through two
production complexes: I) Lube Oil Complex and II) Gas Oil Complex; producing a wide range of petroleum based products from light distillates to heavy ones. AMOC operates under the supervision of the Egyptian General Petroleum Company (EGPC), which is the single largest holder in the company. AMOC was established in 1997 and currently has a paid-in capital of EGP861 million distributed over 86.1 million shares with a par value of EGP10 per share.
▪1H07/08 Results: Margins Chopped!
Revenues grew 27.0% YoY in 1H07/08 to EGP2,741.7 million. Price growth for AMOC’s
products was the main contributor to growth in sales. COGS and other operating expenses
increased at a higher rate than revenues, which led to a declining profitability and margins. Raw materials, which represented more than 94% of COGS in 1H07/08 grew 37.6% YoY pulling down gross margins. Raw materials are purchased from EGPC, or its subsidiaries, at lower than international prices. Gross margin dropped from 23.6% to 18.0%, operating margin declined from 23.1% to 17.5%, and EBITDA margin as well saw a cut from 24.8% to 18.9%.

Egypt Banking Sector, "A Retail Tale"; Update Report

hcsi — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 07:59:48 +0000

April 7th, 2008
Summary
▪Retail Loans to Drive Loans Growth…
With strong economic growth and aggressive retail expansion strategies implemented by most private banks, household loans grew by 20.3% YoY in 2007, compared to 9.2% YoY for corporate and other loans and 11.0% for total sector loans. We believe that retail loans are to drive loans growth, and thus the future earning power of Egypt's large cap banks.
▪… But Rising Inflation is a Risk
Inflation reached an 11-month high of 12.1% in February 2008 driven by higher food prices that extended to non-food prices. High inflation induced the CBE to raise interest rates in its last two meetings by a total of 75 bps, which could place a pressure on banks' funding costs, especially with the excessive liquidity position of Egyptian banks. We believe that the three banks discussed in our report base their interest rate decisions primarily on their liquidity position, and thus any potential increase in rates at those banks will be for the most part disproportionate to the increase in the CBE's policy rates.

Oriental Weavers, "Roll out the Red Carpet"; Update Report

hcsi — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 14:16:36 +0000

Summary

§ FY07 Results: Non organic growth boosts net incomeOriental Weavers released FY07 consolidated results registering a 5.0% YoY increase in top line, reaching EGP3.10 billion, up from EGP2.92 billion in FY06.

Orascom Telecom, "A New Voyage"; Update Report

hcsi — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 14:05:53 +0000

Summary

GB Auto, A Safe Ride, Initiation of Coverage Report

hcsi — Mon, 17 Mar 2008 14:59:42 +0000

Summary

§ Automotive Industry

The automotive industry started in Egypt in the late 50’s with one market player which enjoyed a monopoly in the local market up until the late 1980s. The early 1990s was a flourishing period for Egypt's automotive market, following the economic reforms and the removal of the imports ban. Approximately 35% of vehicles sold in the country are imported with the remaining assembled locally. In 2006, 132,371 units of passenger cars were sold in the local market, representing 77.6% of total units sold, followed by trucks (27,207 units or 15.9%), and buses (11,034 or 6.5%).

Egyptian Resorts Company, "City by the Sea"; Update Report

hcsi — Wed, 27 Feb 2008 12:44:10 +0000

Summary

§ 9M07 Results: Core Operations Boost Performance

Results from 9M07 reflected an impressive performance with the bottom line skyrocketing 85.9% to EGP163.8 million on the back of organic growth. Revenues witnessed a robust 108.4% YoY growth, fueled by sales from phase I that is expected to be completely sold out during 2008. Services’ revenues started kicking in, yet with insignificant values. The impressive results were despite recording a net loss of EGP42.8 million in 3Q07 on the back of receivables write offs amounting to EGP40.0 million.

OCI, "A New Growth Locomotive," Update Report

hcsi — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 14:13:59 +0000

Summary

§ Divestment of the Cement LoB…

OCI divested its cement LoB through selling OCI Building Materials Holding (the holding company that owns all cement related subsidiaries). The deal valued the Cement LoB at an enterprise value of USD14.9 billion; which implies a high EV/ton of proportionate capacity of around USD677/ton (based on a proportionate capacity of 22 million tons).