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HC Increases its 12M TP for CI Capital by c19% to EGP5.47/share

HC Increases its 12M TP for CI Capital by c19% to EGP5.47/share, The firm Capitalizes on NBFS impressive growth

  • HC Brokerage recently updated the market on CI Capital and their NBFS impressive growth. HC stated that it increases its 12M TP for CI Capital by c19% to EGP5.47/share on lower COE and maintain the OW rating.

  • We expect monetary easing and private sector pickup to support leasing and investment banking operations, while financial inclusion should benefit microfinance loan growth
  • CI Capital is currently a target of acquisition by Banque Misr. We expect synergies from this deal to have positive spillover effects on the company’s different operations
  • We increase our 12M TP for CI Capital by c19% to EGP5.47/share on lower COE and maintain our OW rating.

Monette Doss, head of macro and financials commented: “We expect 2020e25e consolidated net profit CAGR of c20% on NBFS growth and improved stock market activity from last year’s troughs: Monetary easing, including 400 bps policy rate cuts in 2020, reflected positively on Corplease’s operations with its net leasing portfolio growing by c56% y-o-y in 9M20, exceeding our earlier estimate by c19%. However, the company’s net interest margin (NIM) declined to 4.6% in 9M20 from 5.5% in 2019. Going forward, we expect the company’s net leasing portfolio to grow at a 2020e–25e CAGR of c24%, maintaining an average leverage of 6.1x, as it tends to securitize c45% of its new annual bookings and expect its NIM to average 4.4%. We raise our provisions estimates over our forecast period to account for higher-than-expected net leasing portfolio growth, and accordingly downward revise our leasing 2021e–24e net earnings estimates by c8%. The company’s microfinance arm, Reefy, managed to outpace the c20% y-o-y sector growth in 9M20, growing its loan book c35% y-o-y to EGP849m and increasing its market share to 4.8%, from 4.2% in 2019, based on our calculations. As we move forward, we expect the government’s financial inclusion efforts to reflect positively on microfinance loan growth, and hence estimate Reefy’s loans to grow at a 2020e–25e CAGR of c26%, outpacing sector growth of c17% over the same period, while we expect NIM to gradually decline to c31% by 2025e from c41% in 2020e. We mostly maintain our previous 2021e–24e net earnings estimates for Reefy. The impact of COVID-19 on emerging stock markets in 2020, worsened by the EGX30 underperforming other markets and dropping c22% y-o-y, has negatively reflected on CI Capital’s investment banking operations with net revenue declining by c27% y-o-y in 9M20. Accordingly, we downward revise our IB 2021e–24e net earnings estimates by c33%, however, we expect it to grow at a 2020e–25e CAGR of c36%, coming from a low base.”

“The IPO of CI Capital’s 16.5%-owned education arm, Taaleem Management Services, to possibly occur in 1Q21:  We positively perceive the company’s direct investment in the education sector through its 16.5%-owned Taaleem Management Services as the sector enjoys high growth potential. On Thursday, the company announced that it submitted its registration application to Egypt’s Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) to list its shares on the Egyptian Exchange (EGX) through an initial public offering (IPO). The offering consists of a secondary sale of shares by Sphinx Obelisk of up to 358m ordinary shares on the EGX, representing up to 49% of its share capital post completion of the offering. Taaleem owns and operates Nahda University in Beni Suef with two campuses in the governorate, and a total capacity of just over 11,000 students and more than 6,270 enrolled students for the academic year 2020/2021. The university consists of 8 faculties and is planning to add three more faculties over the next three years, subject to obtaining regulatory approvals, which will increase its student capacity by c27%. Additionally, Taaleem entered into a joint venture with Palm Hills Developments (PHDC EY) to set up a higher education university in West Cairo, pending regulatory approvals, with a potential capacity of 9,160 students controlled and managed by Taaleem. CI Capital influences the decisions of Taaleem’s board of directors. We value Taaleem at an equity value of EGP4.42bn, implying EGP728m for CI Capital’s share.” Monette Doss added.

“Seeking expansion in NBFS, Banque Misr submits an MTO for up to 90% of CI Capital at EGP4.70/share: Banque Misr has submitted a mandatory tender offer (MTO), approved by Egypt’s Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA), to acquire up to a 90% stake in CI Capital at EGP4.70/share, seeking a minimum stake of 51% of the total company’s shares, while reserving its right to execute a lower number of shares, if it chooses to, according to the MTO circular published on Friday. The offer will run from today and until the end of the 11 March trading session. Banque Misr intends to keep the minimum regulatory free float requirement of 10% of its shares to maintain its listing on the EGX. Currently, the bank owns a 24.7% stake in CI Capital, while the acquisition will increase its exposure to the highly profitable NBFS sector, in our view. We believe the transaction could result in significant synergies between the two entities, including providing cheaper funding to CI Capital’s NBFS operations and benefiting investment banking operations.” Monette Doss continued.

HC’s head of macro and financials concluded: “We increase our 12M TP for CI Capital by c19% to EGP5.47/share, largely on lower COE, and maintain our Overweight rating: We value the company using a Sum-of-the-part (SOTP) methodology, and use an excess return model for its core operations, valuing its consumer finance and mortgage greenfield investments at equity book value. We value its financial investment in Palm Hills Developments at a market value of EGP141m and use a DCF methodology to value Taaleem applying a beta of 1.00. We decrease our cost of equity to an average of 16.7% from 17.5% previously, on a lower-than-previously expected risk-free rate. Individually, we value CI Capital’s Corplease at EGP2.42/share (c17% higher than our previous estimate), putting the business at a 2021e P/E multiple of 7.3x. For microfinance, we value Reefy at EGP1.15/share (c28% higher than our previous estimate), putting the business at a 2021e P/E multiple of 8.70x. We value the investment bank at EGP0.91/share (c1% lower than our previous estimate). We add the equity book value of its mortgage and consumer finance greenfield investments and its financial investment in Palm Hills Developments of EGP0.26/share. We value Taaleem at EGP0.73/share (c3% higher than our previous estimate), putting the business at 2021e EV/EBITDA of 11.1x, 2.11x its acquisition value. The NBFS platform makes up c65% of the stock’s total equity value, the investment bank c17%, Taaleem c13%, with equity investments accounting for the remaining c5%. These sum up to a 12-month target price of EGP5.47/share, implying a potential return of c20% on the 11 February closing price of EGP4.54/share. We, therefore, maintain our Overweight rating on CI Capital. Our 12-month TP of EGP5.47/share puts the stock at a 2021e P/E multiple of 9.77x and a P/B multiple of 1.51x, while it is trading at 2021e P/E and P/B multiples of 8.12x and 1.26x, respectively.”