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Securities & Investment

Tag: Egypt financials

HC: Egypt Financials, dormant phase

Posted on by Marwa Nakhla

  • Egypt’s external position vulnerability renders further EGP devaluation accompanied by interest rate hikes necessary, in our view about Egypt Financials

  • For Egypt Financials, we expect further working capital loan growth, moderate deposit increases, maintained NIMs and pressured asset quality over the rest of 2022e

For Egypt Financials, we expect loans to be mostly geared towards working capital financing and deposits to increase moderately on higher competition from public banks: We expect CAPEX lending to be delayed beyond 2022 while tight corporate liquidity to be the main driver for increasing working capital loans in 2022. Accordingly, we expect average 2022e loan growth of c17% y-o-y for banks under our coverage, largely similar to the 2021 average growth of c16% y-o-y. On the liability side, we expect deposits to increase at a 2022e average of c10% y-o-y down from c19% y-o-y in 2021 due to higher competition from high-interest deposits issued by public banks, which we expect to be reintroduced soon in an attempt to combat dollarization. We expect Crédit Agricole Egypt (CAE) to maintain its conservative balance sheet growth, increasing its deposits by c6% in 2022e compared to c12% for Commercial International Bank (CIB) and c11% for Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank-Egypt (ADIB). We expect banks to mostly take advantage of rising treasury yields which we expect to increase to c18% from c16% currently, however, face some pressure due to our expected increase in the cost of funding. Should our view on interest rates materialize, we expect banks’ NIMs to remain intact, averaging 5.7% in 2022 for banks under our coverage, slightly up from 5.4% in 2021. Accordingly, we expect CAE to face less pressure from increasing funding costs, leading to a 2022e NIM estimate of 6.2% compared to 5.8% for CIB and 5.2% for ADIB Egypt. For ADIB Egypt, we note that the bank relied on high-interest fixed deposits in the past to increase its market share, which led to lower NIMs than peers. In a rising interest rate environment, we expect banks with short or negative asset-liability duration gaps to show the highest bounce in their NIMs as their assets reprice quicker than their liabilities. As such, we expect ADIB-Egypt’s NIMs to increase by 50 bps y-o-y to 5.2% in 2022e, backed by its negative asset-liability duration gap of ten months as of December 2021. We expect CAE’s 2022e NIMs to increase by 40 bps y-o-y to 6.2% (backed by its asset-liability duration gap close to zero). However, we expect CIB’s NIMs to remain at 5.8% in 2022e, the same as last year, backed by its positive asset-liability duration gap of ten months. For CIB and CAE, we largely maintain our 2022–26e earnings estimates as our higher NIMs estimates are largely offset by higher provisioning estimates. For ADIB-Egypt, we raise our 2022–26e earnings estimates by c32%. This reflects our higher growth assumptions following the full completion of its capital increase to EGP5.0bn, which management expects to take place after it finalized an EGP2bn capital increase.

We believe the challenging business environment imposes a threat to the banks’ asset quality; however, we expect it to be contained due to adequate capital buffers: We expect an average 2022e non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 4.2% for banks under our coverage, up from 3.8% a year earlier, reflecting challenging economic conditions. Accordingly, we expect 2022e provision expenses for the three banks to average c12% of net operating income, up from c10% in 2021e, with an average 2022e coverage ratio of c145%, down from c161% in 2021. We believe banks under our coverage are adequately capitalized, with a capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of 22.7% for CAE (as of March 2022), 13.8% for ADIB-Egypt and 28.8% for CIB (as of June 2022). In our numbers, we account for ADIB-Egypt’s second capital increase planned to take place by the end of 2022 or the beginning of 2023, increasing its paid-in capital to EGP5.0bn after successfully implementing the first phase of the rights issue in August, doubling its paid-in capital to EGP4.0bn. For CIB, the bank’s management is unlikely to distribute a special dividend hence maintaining its high capitalization. Given our 2022–26e balance sheet growth estimates, we expect a CAR average of c17% for CAE, c16% for ADIB-Egypt, and c20% for CIB.

HC Increases its 12M TP for CI Capital by c19% to EGP5.47/share

Posted on by Marwa Nakhla

HC Increases its 12M TP for CI Capital by c19% to EGP5.47/share, The firm Capitalizes on NBFS impressive growth

  • HC Brokerage recently updated the market on CI Capital and their NBFS impressive growth. HC stated that it increases its 12M TP for CI Capital by c19% to EGP5.47/share on lower COE and maintain the OW rating.

  • We expect monetary easing and private sector pickup to support leasing and investment banking operations, while financial inclusion should benefit microfinance loan growth
  • CI Capital is currently a target of acquisition by Banque Misr. We expect synergies from this deal to have positive spillover effects on the company’s different operations
  • We increase our 12M TP for CI Capital by c19% to EGP5.47/share on lower COE and maintain our OW rating.

Monette Doss, head of macro and financials commented: “We expect 2020e–25e consolidated net profit CAGR of c20% on NBFS growth and improved stock market activity from last year’s troughs: Monetary easing, including 400 bps policy rate cuts in 2020, reflected positively on Corplease’s operations with its net leasing portfolio growing by c56% y-o-y in 9M20, exceeding our earlier estimate by c19%. However, the company’s net interest margin (NIM) declined to 4.6% in 9M20 from 5.5% in 2019. Going forward, we expect the company’s net leasing portfolio to grow at a 2020e–25e CAGR of c24%, maintaining an average leverage of 6.1x, as it tends to securitize c45% of its new annual bookings and expect its NIM to average 4.4%. We raise our provisions estimates over our forecast period to account for higher-than-expected net leasing portfolio growth, and accordingly downward revise our leasing 2021e–24e net earnings estimates by c8%. The company’s microfinance arm, Reefy, managed to outpace the c20% y-o-y sector growth in 9M20, growing its loan book c35% y-o-y to EGP849m and increasing its market share to 4.8%, from 4.2% in 2019, based on our calculations. As we move forward, we expect the government’s financial inclusion efforts to reflect positively on microfinance loan growth, and hence estimate Reefy’s loans to grow at a 2020e–25e CAGR of c26%, outpacing sector growth of c17% over the same period, while we expect NIM to gradually decline to c31% by 2025e from c41% in 2020e. We mostly maintain our previous 2021e–24e net earnings estimates for Reefy. The impact of COVID-19 on emerging stock markets in 2020, worsened by the EGX30 underperforming other markets and dropping c22% y-o-y, has negatively reflected on CI Capital’s investment banking operations with net revenue declining by c27% y-o-y in 9M20. Accordingly, we downward revise our IB 2021e–24e net earnings estimates by c33%, however, we expect it to grow at a 2020e–25e CAGR of c36%, coming from a low base.”

“The IPO of CI Capital’s 16.5%-owned education arm, Taaleem Management Services, to possibly occur in 1Q21:  We positively perceive the company’s direct investment in the education sector through its 16.5%-owned Taaleem Management Services as the sector enjoys high growth potential. On Thursday, the company announced that it submitted its registration application to Egypt’s Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) to list its shares on the Egyptian Exchange (EGX) through an initial public offering (IPO). The offering consists of a secondary sale of shares by Sphinx Obelisk of up to 358m ordinary shares on the EGX, representing up to 49% of its share capital post completion of the offering. Taaleem owns and operates Nahda University in Beni Suef with two campuses in the governorate, and a total capacity of just over 11,000 students and more than 6,270 enrolled students for the academic year 2020/2021. The university consists of 8 faculties and is planning to add three more faculties over the next three years, subject to obtaining regulatory approvals, which will increase its student capacity by c27%. Additionally, Taaleem entered into a joint venture with Palm Hills Developments (PHDC EY) to set up a higher education university in West Cairo, pending regulatory approvals, with a potential capacity of 9,160 students controlled and managed by Taaleem. CI Capital influences the decisions of Taaleem’s board of directors. We value Taaleem at an equity value of EGP4.42bn, implying EGP728m for CI Capital’s share.” Monette Doss added.

“Seeking expansion in NBFS, Banque Misr submits an MTO for up to 90% of CI Capital at EGP4.70/share: Banque Misr has submitted a mandatory tender offer (MTO), approved by Egypt’s Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA), to acquire up to a 90% stake in CI Capital at EGP4.70/share, seeking a minimum stake of 51% of the total company’s shares, while reserving its right to execute a lower number of shares, if it chooses to, according to the MTO circular published on Friday. The offer will run from today and until the end of the 11 March trading session. Banque Misr intends to keep the minimum regulatory free float requirement of 10% of its shares to maintain its listing on the EGX. Currently, the bank owns a 24.7% stake in CI Capital, while the acquisition will increase its exposure to the highly profitable NBFS sector, in our view. We believe the transaction could result in significant synergies between the two entities, including providing cheaper funding to CI Capital’s NBFS operations and benefiting investment banking operations.” Monette Doss continued.

HC’s head of macro and financials concluded: “We increase our 12M TP for CI Capital by c19% to EGP5.47/share, largely on lower COE, and maintain our Overweight rating: We value the company using a Sum-of-the-part (SOTP) methodology, and use an excess return model for its core operations, valuing its consumer finance and mortgage greenfield investments at equity book value. We value its financial investment in Palm Hills Developments at a market value of EGP141m and use a DCF methodology to value Taaleem applying a beta of 1.00. We decrease our cost of equity to an average of 16.7% from 17.5% previously, on a lower-than-previously expected risk-free rate. Individually, we value CI Capital’s Corplease at EGP2.42/share (c17% higher than our previous estimate), putting the business at a 2021e P/E multiple of 7.3x. For microfinance, we value Reefy at EGP1.15/share (c28% higher than our previous estimate), putting the business at a 2021e P/E multiple of 8.70x. We value the investment bank at EGP0.91/share (c1% lower than our previous estimate). We add the equity book value of its mortgage and consumer finance greenfield investments and its financial investment in Palm Hills Developments of EGP0.26/share. We value Taaleem at EGP0.73/share (c3% higher than our previous estimate), putting the business at 2021e EV/EBITDA of 11.1x, 2.11x its acquisition value. The NBFS platform makes up c65% of the stock’s total equity value, the investment bank c17%, Taaleem c13%, with equity investments accounting for the remaining c5%. These sum up to a 12-month target price of EGP5.47/share, implying a potential return of c20% on the 11 February closing price of EGP4.54/share. We, therefore, maintain our Overweight rating on CI Capital. Our 12-month TP of EGP5.47/share puts the stock at a 2021e P/E multiple of 9.77x and a P/B multiple of 1.51x, while it is trading at 2021e P/E and P/B multiples of 8.12x and 1.26x, respectively.”

HC: Egypt financials – Outperform on sturdy NBFS growth

Posted on by Marwa Nakhla

HC Brokerage recently updated the market on Egypt financials and their NBFS resilient performance. HC stated that EFG Hermes is their top pick on regional exposure and higher potential return.

  • Private sector rebound witnessed in 1Q20 relapsed due to low visibility on the future development of the pandemic in our view, while we expect interest rate stability over the rest of 2020

  • Despite our 2020e earnings downward revision, NBFS are showing high resilience with companies under our coverage seeking profitable investments and synergies with commercial banks

  • We decrease our 12-month TP for EFG Hermes by c10% to EGP21.1/share and for CI Capital by c23% to EGP4.59/share on downward earnings’ revision, while maintain Overweight for both. EFG Hermes is our top pick on regional exposure and higher potential return

Monette Doss, head of macro and financials commented: “Low visibility on the future development of the pandemic dilutes 1Q20 private sector rebound, in our view, while we expect interest rate stability over the rest of 2020: Private consumption grew 5.3% y-o-y in 3Q19/20, the highest level since FY12/13. Another significant development during 9M19/20 was private investment growing 14.1% y-o-y, outpacing government investments which declined by 4.5% y-o-y. Both developments confirm our earlier expectation that the private sector’s contribution to economic growth should gain traction following the materialization of the easing cycle and the completion of Egypt’s economic reform program. Since the outbreak of the pandemic, the government demonstrated efforts to support the private sector through giving a monthly allowance to daily workers, in addition to decreasing natural gas prices to USD4.5/mmbtu for industrial users from USD5.5/mmbtu previously and reducing electricity prices by EGP0.1/KWh for medium, high and ultra-high voltage users, and fixing electricity tariffs for other industrial users for a period of 3–5 years and directing financial support to the healthcare and tourism sectors. Moreover, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) undertook rate cuts of 300 bps in March and another 50 bps in September, decreased interest on its EGP100bn subsidized loan initiative to the industrial sector to a declining interest rate of 8% from 10% previously and extended the initiative to include the agricultural and contracting sectors, delayed loan repayment for all credit clients for 6 months and canceled fees on electronic transactions for 6 months. Going forward, the government is currently looking into methods to support industrial growth through further reduction of natural gas prices to possibly USD3.0/mmbtu and revamping the export rebate program. The CBE is also looking into doubling its industrial initiative to EGP200bn and following the expiry of the 6-month loan repayment grace period in September, the CBE requested banks to restructure loans for all credit clients according to their expected future cash flows without imposing additional financial strain on them. Despite low consumption spending, lagging investment growth and high real interest rate environment, we expect policy rates to remain stable around current levels due to relatively low interbank liquidity and also in order to support the domestic currency.”

“Despite declining 2020e revenue, NBFS are showing high resilience with companies under our coverage seeking profitable investments and synergies with commercial banks: At the sector level, new leasing contracts were slashed by c43% y-o-y in 2Q20, however it grew c13% y-o-y in 1H20 to EGP25.7bn with net leasing portfolios for EFG Leasing and CI Capital’s Corplease growing c25% y-t-d and c22% y-t-d, respectively, to EGP3.8bn and EGP8.4bn, as of June. Hence we estimate 2020–24e net leasing portfolio CAGR of c22% and c18%, respectively, for the 2 companies. Corridor rate cuts accompanied with the CBE initiatives to provide different businesses with subsidized loans resulted in compressed NIMs for both companies under our coverage to an average 4.3% in 2Q20 down from 5.5% in 2019. The compressed NIMs happened sooner than we initially expected as we were expecting a more gradual decline over our 2020-24e forecast period. We downward revise our 2020–24e net profit estimates for both EFG Leasing and Corplease by an average of 23% and 27%, respectively, due to higher than previously expected provisioning, on possibly higher NPLs and lower NIMs. For the microfinance business, sector-wide loans grew c25% y-o-y to EGP17.2bn in 2Q20, down only c4% q-o-q due to lockdowns during most of 2Q20 with a penetration rate of c7%, on our calculations. For EFG Hermes’ Tanmeyah, its loan book remained flat y-o-y in 1H20 at EGP3.3bn (before securitizing EGP540m of its loan book in 2Q20), while CI Capital’s Reefy saw its loan portfolio grow c25% y-o-y to EGP783m in 1H20, mainly due to a favorable base effect. Accordingly, we downward revise our 2020e loan book estimates for Tanmeyah by c11% implying flat y-o-y growth and for Reefy by c5% implying a growth of c44% y-o-y. Over our 2020–24e forecast period we expect NIMs for both companies to gradually decline by an average of 530 bps due to higher competition. We downward revise our 2020–24e net profit estimates by an average c16%–c21%, for Reefy and Tanmeyah, respectively, on higher than previously expected provisioning and lower fees and commissions. Despite the economic downturn taking its toll on brokerage, advisory and asset management revenue, the firms under our coverage sought expansions in the high potential educational sector through EFG Hermes’ GEMS Egypt for Education Services (a JV between GEMS Education and Egypt Education Fund managed by EFG Hermes), and CI Capital’s 16.5% stake in Taaleem Services Management Company, owner of the Nahda University. Both firms are also seeking synergies with commercial banks, with EFG Hermes and the Sovereign Fund of Egypt (SFE) currently conducting a due diligence to acquire 51% and 25% stakes, respectively, in Arab Investment Bank (AIB) through a EGP5.0bn capital increase. The acquisition will help EFG Hermes secure a stable revenue stream smoothing out the high volatility in its IB business, acquire funding for its NBFS platform at favorable terms and deploy a part of its excess cash to a profitable investment and, on the other hand, support AIB capitalization. This will allow for future growth and the compliance of AIB to the CBE’s minimum capital requirements. The deal could occur at 2020e P/B of 1.0x–1.2x, in our view, leading to a deal value of EGP2.6–2.7bn for EFG Hermes, representing c42% of its excess cash, based on our calculations. For CI Capital, Banque Misr acquired 24.7% stake in the company which will also help the firm get favorable funding for its NBFS activities in addition to giving the commercial bank exposure to the highly profitable NBFS market. As a manifestation of the high-growth potential of NBFS, the Egyptian Exchange (EGX) is expected to see some 4 NBFS initial public offerings (IPOs) slated for 2021, namely: (1) Raya Holding’s (RAYA EY) subsidiary Aman for Financial Services, (2) Ebtikar, a JV between MM Group for Industry and International Trade (MTIE EY) and B Investments (BINV EY) or one of its subsidiaries, (3) one of the subsidiaries of Sarwa Capital (SRWA EY), and (4) one of the financial subsidiaries of Orascom Financial Holding (OFH) that will emerge from the demerger of Orascom Investment Holding (OIH EY).” Monette Doss added.

HC’s head of macro and financials concluded: “We decrease our 12-month TP for EFG Hermes by c10% to EGP21.1/share and for CI Capital by c23% to EGP4.59/share on downward earnings’ revision, while maintain Overweight for both. EFG Hermes is our top pick on regional exposure and higher potential return: We value both companies using a SOTP methodology with an excess return model for their core operations and, for EFG Hermes, we add the company’s excess cash and non-operating assets while completely writing off its 8.813% stake in Credit Libanais. For CI Capital, we value Taaleem using a DCF methodology applying a beta of 1, up from our previous education sector average beta of 0.6, to account for the current risky market conditions. For both firms we use a cost of equity applying our forecast for 12-month T-bill yields leading to an average cost of equity of 17.5%. For EFG Hermes investment bank, our base assumption for the cost of equity is a weighted average of Egypt and the MENA region based on geographical revenue contribution leading to an average cost of equity of 11.9%. Individually, we value EFG Leasing at EGP0.84/share (c15% lower than our previous estimate) and CI Capital’s Corplease at EGP2.06/ share (c25% lower than our previous estimate) putting the businesses at a 2020e P/E multiple of 16.2x and 10.1x, respectively. For the microfinance, we value EFG’s Tanmeyah at EGP2.83/share (c8% lower than our previous estimate) and CI Capital’s Reefy at EGP0.90/share (c13% lower than our previous estimate), putting the businesses at a 2020e P/E multiples of 16.8x and 9.17x, respectively. For the investment banks, we value EFG Hermes at EGP8.72/share (almost the same as our previous estimate) and CI Capital at EGP0.92/share (c30% lower than our previous estimate on lower expected earnings). For EFG Hermes, we then add the company’s excess cash position, 2020e dividends (net of tax), and investment property valued at around EGP6.71bn, or EGP8.73/share (c17% lower than our previous estimate as we exclude Credit Libanais from our valuation). We calculate it as the company’s total cash position, add available net receivables and remove seed capital. Finally, we add the company’s 2020e revenue from treasury capital market operations. For CI Capital, we value Taaleem at EGP0.71/share (c14% lower than our previous estimate on a higher beta) putting the business at 2020e EV/EBITDA of 15.1x, 2.06x its acquisition value. For EFG Hermes, the NBFS platform makes up c17% of the stock’s total value, the investment bank c41%, with cash and non-operating assets (NOA) accounting for the remaining c42%. These sum up to a 12-month target price of EGP21.1/share, which yields a potential return of c62% on the 27 September closing price of EGP13.0/share. We therefore maintain our Overweight rating on EFG Hermes Holding. For CI Capital, the NBFS platform makes up c65% of the stock’s total equity value, the investment bank c20%, with Taaleem accounting for the remaining c15%. These sum up to a 12-month target price of EGP4.59/share, which yields a potential return of c35% on the 27 September closing price of EGP3.39/share. We therefore maintain our Overweight rating on CI Capital. For EFG Hermes, our 12-month TP of EGP21.1/share puts the stock at a 2020e P/E multiple of 20.1x and a P/B multiple of 1.22x, while it is trading at 2020e P/E and P/B of 12.4x and 0.75x, respectively. For CI Capital, our 12-month TP of EGP4.59/share puts the stock at a 2020e P/E multiple of 11.8x and a P/B multiple of 1.54x, while it is trading at 2020e P/E and P/B multiples of 8.73x and 1.14x, respectively.”